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chilcot, Iraq, Tony Blair, WMD

Blair’s last stand

.No regrets. Tony Blair didn’t actually quote Edith Piaf, but the former prime minister was resolute about the wisdom of his own judgement over the Iraq war. Nothing to apologise for. The evidence of WMD was “beyond doubt”. We had to go in and deal with Saddam or else we ‘d all likely have been incinerated by terrorist nukes or chemical weapons. Maybe not in forty five minutes, but sometime. You may disagree, but heck – you weren’t there making these life and death decisions. The second UN resolution was destroyed by the French and the Russians – enough said.
The only thing Tony Blair was prepared to apologise for was that Fern Brittan interview when he said that he would have wanted Saddam removed even if he hadn’t had WMD. It was impressive, though. Tony Blair remains a master communicator, and we all miss him a little, really. He gave a virtuoso display of effortless plausibility to the Chilcot Inquiry – surely the last time we will see him in this role.  A little coy and hesitant at first, fumbling with his briefing notes, but once he got into his stride we were transported back to those Iraq debates in parliament in 2002. That old unquestioning self-belief sugared by a dash of self-deprecating charm and a bit of blokish informality. 
Tony Blair could make any argument sound plausible. Black may not on the face of it be the same as white. But, with respect, what you have to remember is that white can very easily become black, if the intention is there to turn out the lights. And, in all fairness, wesimply cannot take take the risk of ending up in a black on black situation. So, Saddam didn’t actually HAVE WMD, but he certainly had the will to aquire it and the know-how.
It’s only after Blair’s left the scene that you begin to appreciate the full absurdity of what he has just said. He kept referring to 9/11 and how it had changed the “calculus of risk”. These people weren’t like ordinary terrorists, like the IRA, he insisted. Al Qaeda were beyond reason and prepared to die to kill any number of innocent civilians. They had to be stopped. That’s why we invaded a country, er, which had no connection at all with al Qaeda. 
Nevertheless we had to disarm Saddam Hussein of weapons of mass destruction which – okay – weren’t technically there, but which COULD have been. You can’t deny that. The intelligence was “patchy and sporadic” but it might have become less so.  Saddam might have allied with al Qaeda (who hated him) and he just might have decided to blow us all into the next world. He didn’t actually have a beef with us, especially since we helped arm his regime in the 1980s for his war against Iran. But heck, he might have found some reason to attack us!   And for that reason we launched an illegal war, wrecking Iraq and killing around 100,000 people. Politicians normally say they don’t do hypotheticals – but the Iraq war was based on a whole raft of assumptions about the future which were highly questionable. 
Blair also said that we “couldn’t let America do this on its own” as if anything George W. Bush did was by definition the right thing to do. It doesn’t get much madder than that. Even Idi Amin had a better grasp on geo-political reality. How did we all fall for it? How did the UK parliament vote for this war? Why did the cabinet acquiesce? They are the real culprits: if Gordon Brown and John Prescott – or even Robin Cook and Jack Straw – had got together and said: “Tony – enough”, the whole miserable business might never have happened.  Remember that Harold Wilson stood firm in 1967 and refused to join America in the Vietnam War.  This wasn’t a left or right thing; a new and old Labour thing. It was a not-doing-something-crazy-thing. 
  It is a dismal reflection on the state of our democracy that no one had the will or the power to hold Tony Blair in check. To save him from himself.  Clearly Blair had got in deep with the Americans – deeper than was sensible. A bit like getting involved in the Corleone family, it had consequences – one of which being that you were expected to turn up for a fight. After 9/11 Blair said he would stand by America come what may. And unfortunately, they held him to his word. America was slightly deranged at that moment – for perfectly understandable reasons – and was not behaving rationally. Perhaps Blair thought he could get them to behave; that he could involve them in the United Nations process and prevent them doing something stupid. Unfortunately, they went ahead anyway. Push came to shove, and Blair couldn’t detach himself. 
  He must realise this now – but there was no sign of remorce before Chilcot.  Tony Blair is doesn’t do bluster and he doesn’t do angstor self-doubt. The only time he appeared rattled on Friday was when he was closely examined by Sir Roderic Lyne about that remarkably convenient change of heart on the legality of the war by the Attorney General Lord Goldsmith on the very eve of the invasion in March 2003. A miraculous conversion if ever there was one.
As Lyne took Blair through the sequence of events, summarising the evidence of other witnesses the former PM looked worried.   Was it really justifiable to go to war on the basis of a judgement from the Attorney General which  said that, while there was a case for war, he wouldn’t have liked to test it in court?  It was history speaking, and Blair had a vision of his future. For a moment I thought that the carapace of self-belief was about to crack.   But the moment passed, and Blair finished the day, as he had begun, in full command of his cool.  
  History has already made its judgement.  After this inquiry no one can surely believe that the Iraq war was justified.  It was a tragedy.  A stupid war led by stupid leaders drunk on their own rhetoric.  As someone who supported both the Kosovo conflict and the first Gulf War, this is a matter of some concern to me personally.   Military intervention is sometimes justified, if there is a pressing humanitarian crisis, like ethnic cleansing. But after Iraq, humanitarian intervention has become an oxymoron.   And dictators across the world are sleeping easier in their beds as a result. 

About @iainmacwhirter

I'm a columnist for the Herald. Author of "Road to Referendum" and "Disunited Kingdom". Was a BBC TV and radio presenter for 25 years - "Westminster Live" and "Holyrood Live" mainly. Spent time as columnist for The Observer, Guardian, New Statesman. Former Rector of Edinburgh University. Live in Edinburgh and spend a lot of time in the French Pyrenees. Will that do?


64 thoughts on “Blair’s last stand

  1. Well the Chilcott panel has no lawyers or military men or elected politicians to poke holes in Tony's utterings so I expected him to get a free ride.His claim that Saddam was a scary guy who could have killed us all and we should look at 2010 rather than 2003 is a bit weird. Heck North Korea, Iran , China, etc are far more scary yet will never see us at their door.Fraser Nelson in The Spectator has the real story.We left thousands to die in Basra after we handed power over to the militias while our brave troops bunkered down at Basra airport. Tony was able to say that the attacks on British troops had died down. The militia was able to pick out their enemies at will and torture them to death. Everyone happy.At least the US knows that we are cowards and traitors if the British people don't.

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  3. Quality journalism. The best thing I read all weekend.

    Posted by Anonymous | February 1, 2010, 1:35 am
  4. Interesting that Tom Harris thinks your arguments about legality are dishonest and contradictory. In his blog he accuses you specifically of this: (quote):"Macwhirter either couldn’t understand the point I was making or, more likely, deliberately chose to misinterpret it. "There was no specific UN mandate for military action by Nato against the Serbs in 1999. None of the nations taking part was acting in self-defence. Very few people at the time even raised the subject. But in 2003, it was all about international law, wasn’t it?"Well, no. It wasn’t."It was all about politics. It was about polticians making political decisions and about those who disagreed with those decisions using whatever arguments that came to hand to oppose them. "You never hear the Guardian-reading classes demanding that Tony Blair be tried for war crimes committed in Kosovo, where there were civilian casualties resulting from the Nato bombing. Why? Because those same Guardian-readers agreed with that particular policy, irrespective of its legality."(End of quote).As I understand that statement, the basis of his view on a truthful state of affairs (and consequent action) depends on the pure force of preference, not the implied rationality of non-contradiction of which you stand accused and found wanting. In other words, "I want to do X and I have the power to do it.I am now doing it."If that's accurate, then what happens to the basis of his position if pure force is now directed back at him? What basis has his appeal to a true state of affairs if he has ruled out consistency (or non-contradiction) in advance? It appears as though his argument is completely self-defeating. One assumes that his views on the irrelevance of legality (though not rationality) have been emboldened by John Rentoul's longstanding and more disciplined views in the 'Independent'. But what he doesn't do is repeat those better-formed arguments. Instead, he accuses you of hypocrisy and then he defaults to the vulgarity of pure force, a predictably seedy position in a West of Scotland Labour politician viz., "Everyone's corrupt son, so what makes you think you ur something?"

    Posted by ratzo | February 1, 2010, 12:36 pm
  5. I think he will be re-called. I think he's got to be. There are so many inconsistencies and God only knows what Brown is going to add when he takes the stand.It's not a court, but it is an inquiry. The panel on Chilcot, hand picked as they may be, are in effect investigating officers and they need to produce a report.With the information they have so far that will be impossible. Too many contradictory statements.I don't think he will be quite as polished when he gives evidence for the second time, which I think even for the members of the establishment who make up the Chilcot panel is going to be unavoidable.

    Posted by Observer | February 2, 2010, 9:32 pm
  6. This was all planned from the beginning. That is why Labour changed the law on Independent Inquiries before Iraq and 7/7 so that they can pick who does the enquiry and what may or not be included.There should be a totally independent inquiry into Iraq, 7/7 and Dr Kelly with full court powers with these people having to give their evidence under oath.Blair and the Labour party are guilty of murder and treason against their own citizens as well as all the people murdered in Iraq and they should have to pay the ultimate penalty for their crimes.www.paisleyexpressions.blogspot.com

    Posted by Billy | February 3, 2010, 7:26 pm
  7. Billy – look we know you have seen a few videos and those Dr people have explained about the direct energy weapons, you post this all over the place, but just have a wee think about it.Do you think for a minute that if the US and UK govts had staged 9/11 and 7/7 they would have managed to keep it a secret? The UK govt can't keep anything a secret. The US couldn't keep Watergate a secret. It defies belief that they could have kept 9/11 a secret. Now there *may* have been some rogue elements (in the US re: 9/11) who knew what was being planned, or that something was being planned, but they sure as hell didn't rig the Twin Towers and blow them up themselves.That really is tin foil hat stuff. The 7/7 bombers told us *exactly* why they carried out their murderous acts. Because ''we'' had re-elected Blair. The statement made was quite specific.You seem well intentioned but you need to catch a grip. Deal with what is known, not what is conjecture – and please don't reply as I don't want to squat on Iain's blog having a bizarre argument.I just saw you in passing so thought I would ask you to have a wee think.

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  10. Observer Feb 03I really do not need to have a wee think about anything I have been looking into and studying the evidence for a good many years now.Watergate would have remained a secret if it was not for the journalists involved investigating and making sure the facts were reported. We have no press or tv investigating these atrocities even though the official evidence is such a pile of crock.Your quote about the 7/7 bombers shows how ignorant of the facts you are. Funny how these "suicide bombers" got shot dead miles away from the trains that were blown up with military grade explosives, C4, from UNDERNEATH the carraiges.Dr Judy Wood and Dr Mogan Reynolds are suing the US government with facts – there were no planes, it was faked video by the MEDIA and the Twin Towers were turned to dust with dust with Direct Energy Weapons. All facts as these Drs use physics as evidence.The US and the UK governments were the ones with the agendas, the ones who stood to gain the most by these atrocities. The US government tried to make sure there was no independent inquiry into 911 and then set up a crooked one after pressure by victims families – who were disguted by the outcome. The UK Labour government still refuse to have an independent inquiry into 7/7.The government could quite easily take me to court if they want over my accusations but that is the last place they want to go near. Same goes for the councillors I name for fraud at my site also.www.paisleyexpressions.blogspot.com

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  16. Dr Judy Wood and Dr Mogan Reynolds are suing the US government with facts – there were no planes, it was faked video by the MEDIA and the Twin Towers were turned to dust with dust with Direct Energy Weapons. All facts as these Drs use physics as evidence.Actually, it's been proven that the Towers never even existed – the MEDIA just photoshopped them into all photos of the NYC skyline. I saw it on a blog once. They used physics as evidence.

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  19. Billy. If there were no planes on 9/11 then where did all the passengers go ?And how did they manage to get the passengers to voluntarily phone their loved ones claiming they were hijacked ? Including a senators wife I believe.How could they keep it all secret ? There would need to be thousands in on the scam.

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  22. Questions for BillyTypical of the myths put out by the US media and government.There were no planes = there were no passemgers = no phone calls. Where were all the distraught relatives and friends, nowhere, because they shut down only one airport that day and that was the one where the supposed planes were heading for.Also the flimsy plane you allude the phone calls came from left a small clean hole in a field with not one bit of debris.There does not need to be thousands involved in the scam. There was exersizes going on that day, with thousands involved, and the Twin Towers and Pentagon were strangely targets at the exact same time as the supposed terrorists – the same as happened at 7/7. It only needs a small number to know what is really going on.Dr Judy Wood and Dr Morgan Reynolds are suing the US government and 27 US companies for putting out lies with regard to 911 using facts based on physics not conspiracy. http://www.drjudywood.comwww.paisleyexpressions.blogspot.com

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